Navigating Uncertainty in 2026

Right now, the trade and construction industry is facing a period of significant uncertainty. It is a scenario that many have not experienced for several years, although some may recall the similar energy that permeated the market during the COVID-19 period. Whether you have been in business for five, ten, or twenty years and are accustomed to the rollercoaster ride of entrepreneurship, or you are a newer business owner experiencing these challenges for the first time, it is crucial to understand how to protect your current assets and prepare for the future.

Below are some simple steps to take to create your own certainty when it appears the external world is shaky.

Attending to the Context First
The emotion of fear is one of the easiest to generate within the human body. When faced with unfamiliar and uncertain situations, the human brain often perceives a lack of safety, triggering a fear-based response. This response can manifest as fight, flight, freeze, or fawn. However, it is also possible to channel this energy into a state of flow. Before diving into specific tactical actions, it is essential to establish a strong mental framework to manage yourself and your business through these turbulent times.

1. You Create Your View of the World  
The first thing to remember is that you assign meaning to everything that happens around you. Global events, economic shifts, and industry changes are objective occurrences, but you create the context and reality around them. You label these events as good, bad, right, or wrong. Recognising that you are the one who gives meaning to these situations empowers you to make conscious choices about how to respond.

2. Everything is a Choice 
While it may sometimes feel like your options are limited, there are always choices available. You may not always enjoy the outcome or the difficult decisions required to fulfill those choices, but acknowledging your agency is a critical step in regaining control.

3. Know on What Matters Most
You may have had grand plans for the coming year, but it is necessary to bring your attention back to the present. What matters most right now in your business, with your family, with your customers, and with your cash flow? This year may not be about aggressive growth; instead, it could be a time for consolidation and stability, ensuring that your foundational elements are secure.

4. Focusing on What You Can Control
Focus leads to flow. To navigate uncertainty effectively, you must direct your focus toward the areas where you have the most impact. Consider the concept of the three circles: the Circle of Control, the Circle of Influence, and the Circle of Concern.

The only things you truly have control over are your thoughts, the feelings you generate, the choices you make, and the actions you take. Every single day, you must choose how to operate within this circle of control.

Beyond that lies the Circle of Influence. These are the areas where your behaviour can have an impact, such as the actions of your team members, your pricing strategies, and your relationships with customers and suppliers. By focusing your Circle of Control, you can positively affect your Circle of Influence.

Finally, there is the Circle of Concern, which encompasses everything else; global conflicts, fuel prices, supplier costs, and the daily news cycle. The media often highlights these areas, but it is crucial to remember that much of what you see is curated. To maintain a healthy perspective, consider letting go of the Circle of Concern. Limit your exposure to the news and social media feeds, as they can often leave you feeling paralysed rather than empowered. Instead, wake up each morning and focus on what you can influence through your behaviour.

Action to Take
From a tactical perspective, navigating uncertainty requires a strong emphasis on connection. There are three key areas; the three C's that require your attention: Cash, Customers, and Community.
 
1. Cash and Profitability
Cash is the lifeblood of your business, but profitability must come first. Your business does not exist merely to be profitable; it needs to be profitable to exist. You must ensure that your pricing reflects the additional costs currently impacting your business. Rising fuel prices, for example, flow down into almost every aspect of project delivery.

Have you analysed your costs for the recent weeks and compared them to previous periods? It is not your responsibility as a business owner to absorb these escalating costs long-term. You must be aware of where you need to adjust your pricing to maintain the necessary margins. Pay close attention to your cash flow and understand the difference between an expense and an investment. Ensure you have reliable advisors, such as accountants and bookkeepers, to provide clear, accurate financial data for informed decision-making.

2. Customers and Suppliers
Your second area of connection is your customers, which also includes your suppliers. Make a commitment to connect with them regularly. If you were to make five calls a day for the next thirty days, you would reach 150 of your top customers and suppliers. Check in with them to see how they are managing the current circumstances.

The relationship is always far more important than the transaction. If you have contracts in place, ensure you are clear about special conditions regarding cost escalation. Communicate openly about any additional costs that may be incurred, whether through price increases or surcharges. Maintaining strong, transparent relationships will help you navigate these challenges together.

3. Community and Team
The third C is your community, starting with your internal team. Are you connecting with your employees and checking in on their well-being? As an employer, your role extends to mentoring, supporting, coaching, and guiding your team. Create an emotionally safe space for them to come to work each day and do their best. Acknowledge their efforts and use this opportunity to connect on a deeper level.

Case Study: Apex Plumbing Solutions

To understand how these principles apply in the real world, consider the story of Apex Plumbing Solutions, a mid-sized commercial plumbing contractor.

The Challenge:
In early 2026, Apex Plumbing faced a sudden 15% increase in the cost of copper piping and a significant spike in fuel prices. The owner, Mark, initially felt overwhelmed. He spent hours scrolling through news articles about global conflict and supply chain disruptions (his Circle of Concern), which left him feeling anxious and paralysed. His initial reaction was to absorb the costs to avoid upsetting his long-term clients, but his margins quickly began to erode.

The Shift in Perspective:
Realising that fear was dictating his decisions, Mark decided to shift his focus. He acknowledged that while he could not control global copper prices, he could control his response (his Circle of Control). He chose to stop watching the news and instead focused on what mattered most: the financial stability of his business and the well-being of his team.

Applying the Three C's:

1. Cash and Profitability: Mark sat down with his bookkeeper to analyse the exact impact of the rising costs. They realised that absorbing the costs was unsustainable. Mark made the difficult choice to adjust his pricing model, introducing a transparent materials surcharge for new contracts and renegotiating terms on upcoming phases of existing projects.

2. Customers and Suppliers: Instead of sending a generic email about price increases, Mark committed to calling his top twenty clients and his primary suppliers. He explained the situation honestly and discussed how they could work together to mitigate the impact. To his surprise, most clients appreciated the transparency and agreed to the revised terms, valuing the relationship and reliability Apex Plumbing provided over a slightly cheaper, unknown competitor.

3. Community and Team: Mark noticed his team was also feeling the stress of the economic climate. He started holding weekly "toolbox talks" that were not just about safety, but also about checking in on their mental well-being. He created an open forum for them to voice concerns and reassured them of the company's stability. This connection fostered a stronger, more loyal team environment.

The Outcome: By focusing on his Circle of Control and actively managing his Cash, Customers, and Community, Mark not only stabilised Apex Plumbing's profitability but also strengthened his relationships with key clients and his team. He transformed a period of uncertainty into an opportunity for consolidation and resilience.

Seeking Support
Remember, you do not have to face these challenges alone. If you need support, guidance, or advice, reach out to the team at PROTRADE United.

By taking proactive steps and maintaining a strong support network, you can protect your business and position it for future success.

Written by Jon Mailer
CEO PROTRADE United 
Author of ‘Not Just a Tradie’